The American technology corporation Nvidia received partial access to the Chinese market after a temporary ban on the export of H20 series chips, introduced in April 2025. Despite the official approval of new deliveries, analysts predict a significant decline in the company's market share in China amid the strengthening position of local manufacturers and increasing regulatory pressure from Beijing.
The removal of restrictions on H20 exports was the result of political negotiations, during which Nvidia also announced a new chip specifically adapted to the requirements of US export controls. This decision turned out to be strategically important for the company — previously, management warned about the risk of billions of dollars in losses due to restrictions on access to one of the key markets.
According to the international analytical group Bernstein, Nvidia's share in the Chinese AI chip market will decrease from 66 percent in 2024 to 54 percent in 2025. The main reason for the decline is not only the temporary suspension of deliveries, but also the rapid growth of local developers, including Huawei, Cambricon and Hygon, who took advantage of the situation to increase their own share.
Analysts note that the localization rate of the Chinese AI processor market will grow from 17 percent in 2023 to 55 percent by 2027. Reducing dependence on American technology has become a priority for Beijing amid escalating geopolitical and technological confrontations. In response, the United States continues to actively discuss the need for a flexible approach to export regulation, which will allow American companies to maintain a presence in strategically important markets.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on the eve of the lifting of restrictions that export controls negatively affect the global leadership of the United States in the field of technology. Some experts support the view that keeping American companies in the Chinese market increases the geo-economic influence of the United States, even if restrictions are necessary.
At the same time, the Chinese authorities continue to actively promote the domestic AI infrastructure. A recent meeting between Nvidia representatives and the Chinese Cyberspace Administration was related to Beijing's concerns about vulnerabilities in the H20 architecture, including possible remote access mechanisms. Despite denying the accusations of so-called "back doors", analysts see the actions of the Chinese authorities as a way to curb interest in new Nvidia products among local developers.
Similar measures have been applied before. In 2023, the US company Micron lost access to critical segments of the Chinese IT infrastructure after failing to check for cybersecurity standards. Against this background, there remains a high degree of uncertainty about Nvidia's prospects in China, despite the official resumption of exports.
With the transformation of the global semiconductor market and increased protectionist policies from leading economies, the dynamics around Nvidia demonstrate how closely technology and international trade are intertwined with political interests. The result of the confrontation between the world's largest AI players could shape the technological landscape for the next decade.
