US steps up pressure: Brazil prepares mirror strike on Trump's tariffs

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has said he is ready to respond with symmetrical measures to US President Donald Trump's decision to impose a 50% duty on Brazilian exports. A new round of trade pressure, which is scheduled to start on August 1, may provoke an escalation of economic contradictions between the two largest economies in the western hemisphere.

The essence of the conflict goes far beyond trade. Formally, the White House motivates its decision with the need to protect the national economy and eliminate the trade imbalance. However, a letter sent by Trump to President Lula contains a direct link between the introduction of the duty and the trial of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is accused of trying to undermine the results of the 2022 election.

This is the first time that the United States has openly used trade tariffs as a tool of political pressure in response to another country's internal legal processes. Such a strategy raises serious concerns not only in Latin America, but also among the US partner countries in other areas.

Brazil's response was immediate. Lula said that the country will take advantage of the recently adopted law that allows for the introduction of proportional retaliatory measures in the event of economic aggression by foreign states. In a public statement, he stressed that Brazil is a sovereign State with independent institutions and will not allow external interference in its internal affairs.

"Our country will not submit to external dictates. We are ready to respond and will do so within the framework of the current legislation, " Lula said.

Markets reacted immediately, with the Brazilian real falling more than 2% against the dollar. This indicates that the financial sector is highly sensitive to any signs of trade tensions with the United States.

Trump himself in his letter also called the actions of the Brazilian Supreme Court — in particular, the possible tightening of regulation of content in social networks - "an attack on freedom of speech" and "a threat to democracy." He accused Brazil of pursuing unfair trade policies that allegedly lead to "unacceptable deficits" in the US trade balance. At the same time, according to official statistics, the United States in 2024 had a surplus of goods trade with Brazil in the amount of $ 7.4 billion.

The letter also threatens a new investigation into Brazilian digital commerce, including measures allegedly restricting the activities of American Internet companies in Brazil.

All 21 letters sent by Trump to the leaders of various countries — from Japan to Moldova-contain the same structure: if a country imposes duties in response, the United States immediately increases the tariff by a similar amount. There is also a potential possibility of reducing duties, but only if non-tariff barriers are completely eliminated and trade agreements are revised in favor of Washington.

In the case of Brazil, the rhetoric is particularly aggressive: the decision to impose a 50 percent tariff is accompanied by direct political accusations and the threat of further sanctions. In this context, the question arises: how effective is economic pressure as a foreign policy tool, especially in relation to countries with growing regional ambitions?

Analysts warn that such measures could lead not only to a deterioration of relations with Brazil, but also to a destabilization of trade flows in South America as a whole. Given the deep integration of logistics chains, Brazil's response may affect the interests of third countries and cause cascading effects on global commodity markets.

The Brazilian authorities have already begun working out options for a mirror response. U.S. shipments of agricultural products, pharmaceutical products, and technology, including exports of software and IT services, may be affected. At the same time, Brazil can step up cooperation with China, the EU and other trading partners in order to compensate for losses and reduce dependence on the US market.

It is significant that amid the conflict, President Lula did not cancel his visit to Beijing, where he is scheduled to participate in an economic forum aimed at strengthening ties between the BRICS countries. This may serve as a signal of a further turn of Brazil's foreign economic policy towards the East.

The situation is developing against the backdrop of global trade tensions and growing distrust of unilateral measures. If the United States continues to use tariffs as a political tool, this could trigger a wave of protectionism around the world and finally destroy the system of multilateral trade rules that developed after World War II.

In the absence of a compromise between Washington and Brasilia, we can expect further escalation and expansion of the list of goods subject to increased tariffs. Ultimately, consumers, businesses, and global stability will be the main victims of the conflict.