US imposes 50% duty on copper imports from August: a bet on industrial sovereignty

The administration of US President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a 50% duty on copper imports, which will take effect on August 1, 2025. The decision is justified by the strategic need to strengthen national security and diversify the supply of key raw materials used in the defense and high-tech industries.

President Trump said that the new tariff decision was made after receiving an official assessment of threats in the field of national security. In a published statement, he stressed that copper plays a critical role in the production of semiconductors, military aviation, shipbuilding, ammunition, data centers, lithium-ion batteries, radar and anti-missile systems, as well as hypersonic weapons, the development of which in the United States is actively increasing. Copper ranks second in terms of consumption in the structure of the US Department of Defense after steel.

In the current geopolitical environment, such measures are becoming part of a broader policy of economic protectionism and the restoration of industrial capacity within the country.

Against the background of the announcement of the duty, domestic copper prices in the United States showed a sharp increase. The metal rose 2.62 percent on the day, following a record jump of 13.12 percent a day earlier-the biggest one-day gain since 1989. The U.S. copper market, which is traditionally sensitive to changes in customs policy, is currently showing signs of deficit strain.

At the same time, on the London Metal Exchange, futures for three-month copper delivery fell 1.63 percent to the level of $ 9630 per ton. This indicates a growing gap between domestic prices in the United States and quotes in the global market. According to forecasts, by August, American consumers will pay up to $ 15,000 per ton of copper, while in other countries the price will remain around $ 10,000.

Despite its industrial heritage, the United States remains dependent on imported copper — almost 50 percent of domestic demand is met by external supplies, primarily from Chile. This makes the industry vulnerable to the instability of global supply chains and trade restrictions.

In response to the new tariffs, the U.S. Commerce Secretary announced his intention to "bring copper production home" and align duties on copper with existing tariffs on steel and aluminum, which were doubled to 50 percent in June. However, experts note that increasing domestic production will require significant time and investment.

Carlos Miguel Gutierrez, former U.S. Secretary of Commerce, noted that the current dependence on imports is a strategic weakness, and a full replacement of foreign supplies at best can be implemented no earlier than 2027-2028. This is possible only if the tariff policy is stable in the long term and predictable conditions are created for investors.

Sectoral tariffs on raw materials-copper, steel, aluminum and pharmaceuticals-are becoming a tool of pressure in international negotiations and the formation of strategic autonomy. As global competition for resources intensifies, large economies seek to localize the extraction and processing of critical materials.

According to industry analysts, global copper production is expected to grow in the coming years. From 2025 to 2034, global production is expected to increase by an average of 2.9 percent annually, rising from 23.8 to 30.9 million tons per year. The main drivers will be Chile, Mongolia (projects at the Oyu Tolgoi field), Peru, Russia and Zambia.

Despite this growth, the United States is at risk of becoming vulnerable amid increasing competition for access to raw materials and the need for large-scale technological modernization of the domestic industry.

The choice of copper as an object of tariff protection signals a new phase of US trade policy, in which national security and technological independence are becoming key priorities. In the context of a global redistribution of markets and transformation of supply chains, the US administration is betting on the restoration of industrial sovereignty, albeit at the cost of short-term disruptions and inflationary pressures in the domestic market.