Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan: what are your plans?

The visit of the President of Uzbekistan to Azerbaijan, scheduled for the near future, coincides with the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Against the backdrop of increasing global competition, instability in logistics and energy, as well as the growing role of regional alliances, the meeting promises to be not just a protocol gesture, but an attempt to clarify what format of cooperation both Tashkent and Baku are happy with in the coming years.

The first contact at the level of heads of state took place back in 1996, when Islam Karimov and Heydar Aliyev signed an agreement on friendship and cooperation. Later, already under Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Ilham Aliyev, the key moment was the summit of the Turkic Council in 2019, where, along with multilateral discussions, behind — the-scenes negotiations were held on possible areas of bilateral cooperation with economic, transport, humanitarian and partly military-technical content.

What is recorded on paper?

In June 2022, the President of Azerbaijan visited Tashkent. During the visit, a Declaration on deepening strategic partnership was signed, which includes almost 40 areas of cooperation. A year later, the Supreme Interstate Council was established, the first meeting of which was held in August 2024. At the same time, a treaty on allied relations was signed. This is a legal formalization of the desire for rapprochement, but it does not mean automatic political or military integration.

Against this background, the question is: will Mirziyoyev's new visit to Baku be a step towards consolidating the allied model, or will Tashkent and Baku prefer to maintain a flexible, adaptive format that does not require rigid alliances?

Economy: growth is there, but the gap with potential remains

Since the beginning of 2025, the trade turnover between the two countries has grown by 40% and exceeded $200 million. However, this amount is far from the goal of reaching $1 billion by 2030. Through the joint investment fund, projects worth more than $360 million are already being implemented: in construction, tourism, logistics and industry.

One notable example is the assembly of Chevrolet cars in Hajigabul. Almost 9,000 vehicles have been produced and the possibility of building a second plant is being discussed. How stable demand will be and how deep industrial cooperation will become is an open question.

An additional growth point is working together on logistics. Over the past two years, the volume of transportation of Uzbek goods through Azerbaijan has doubled. Joint logistics hubs, connecting railway routes and creating new storage areas are being discussed. Uzbekistan's main goal is to gain sustainable access to the sea and protect export-import chains from external shocks.

Energy: a bet on a green transition or an addition to hydrocarbons?

In July 2024, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan signed a protocol on the creation of a "green energy corridor". We are talking about the possibility of exporting renewable electricity to Europe. However, so far this is more of a design framework than an existing system. Questions arise: who will be the investor, what are the terms, and what volumes of energy are planned to be exported?

At the same time, a more traditional partnership in the field of hydrocarbons is also developing. The participation of SOCAR and Uzbekneftegaz in each other's projects may help Tashkent diversify its sources of technology, but it remains unclear how deep this cooperation will become and at what level mutual benefits will be provided.

Humanitarian agenda: symbols, schools and cultural diplomacy

In 2023, a school built at the expense of the Uzbek side was opened in the city of Fuzuli on the territory of Karabakh. This is a gesture of support, but also an element of public diplomacy. Discussions are continuing on the introduction of a mutual travel regime using ID cards, as well as strengthening cultural exchange — from gastronomy to academic programs.

Cultural references to the common heritage — from the works of Navoi and Nizami to the architectural parallels of Samarkand and Baku-are used in public rhetoric, but they need to be filled with content. Are we talking about creating joint educational programs, exchange institutes, or will it be limited to the exchange of delegations and exhibitions?

Political architecture and parliamentary dialogue

In 2024, an Action Plan for Inter-parliamentary cooperation for 2025-2026 was signed, and the rules of procedure of the Inter-Parliamentary Commission were approved. This structures the dialogue, but the question remains whether parliaments will be able to play an independent role in bilateral politics, or whether these instruments will remain a formality.

What will the upcoming visit show you?

The focus is on signing new agreements and discussing the expansion of cooperation in the energy, logistics and digital transformation sectors. However, clarifying the interaction model is key: Are the parties ready to deepen their alliance at the level of strategic commitments, or will they maintain a pragmatic but cautious approach focused on flexibility?

The opening of the new building of the Embassy of Uzbekistan in Baku, scheduled for the next few days, serves as a signal that the level of contacts is growing. But the real prospects will become clear after the parties announce the agenda and specific agreements of the visit.

In the meantime, there are more questions than answers:

• Will we talk about real steps within the framework of the alliance, or will everything be limited to a technical dialogue?
• How deep will economic cooperation become and what mechanisms will ensure its sustainability?
• Which energy and logistics projects will receive priority — green, hydrocarbon or mixed projects?
• Will the parliamentary dialogue receive a real political burden or will it remain an auxiliary platform?

The answers to these questions will determine whether the Baku-Tashkent alliance remains a model of "cooperation by interests" or is transformed into a long-term strategic partnership.