Sum strengthens: dynamics of the dollar exchange rate in Uzbekistan in June and factors of influence

In June 2025, the official exchange rate of the US dollar in Uzbekistan showed a noticeable decline, falling by 114 soums — from 12,768. 26 to 12,654. 13 soums. During the month, the national currency strengthened by 0.89%, which was a continuation of the trend recorded since the beginning of the year: in the first half of the year, the dollar exchange rate decreased by more than 2%, or by 266.35 soums.

For most of June, the dollar exchange rate showed a steady decline, reaching a minimum value of 12,410. 99 soums on June 24 — the lowest level since the end of January. However, in the last week of the month, there was a local weakening of the soum: in four days it lost more than 240 soums, which was a reflection of fluctuations in the domestic foreign exchange market.

Commercial banks also adjusted their exchange rates: if at the end of May the dollar was bought at 12,705-12,760 soums and sold to the public at 12,790-12,850 soums, then by June 30 the price levels decreased to 12,595 - 12,650 soums when buying and 12,700-12,715 soums when selling.

In annual comparison, June 2025 was the second consecutive month of strengthening of the national currency. In the same period of 2024, the exchange rate decreased by 64.67 soums (-0.51%), while in June 2023, the opposite movement was observed — the weakening of the soum by 82.28 soums (+0.72%).

The economic dynamics of the first half of the year confirms the stable trajectory of the national currency. From January to June, the dollar exchange rate decreased from 12,920. 48 to 12,654. 13 soums. In 2024, over the same period, the sum depreciated by 1.75%, and in 2023 — by 2.34%. The current result shows the opposite trend.

International financial institutions positively assess the steps taken by the regulator to increase the flexibility of the exchange rate. In particular, the expansion of the range of exchange rate fluctuations noted by the International Monetary Fund contributes to a more accurate reflection of market conditions and increases the stability of monetary policy against external shocks.

Economists attribute the strengthening of the soum to a combination of macroeconomic and behavioral factors. Among the key factors is the growth of export earnings, especially against the background of increased gold supplies. In the first five months of 2025, exports of the precious metal reached $ 6.5 billion, which is 54.8% higher than in the same period last year. Gold accounted for almost 44% of the country's total exports.

Other factors include the sterilization of foreign exchange earnings from gold, an increase in the volume of money transfers at the beginning of the month against the background of the strengthening of the ruble, as well as changing behavioral expectations of the population. The stability of the national currency increases its attractiveness as a means of accumulation, which, in turn, increases the supply of foreign currency in the domestic market.

The stability of the soum exchange rate in the first half of 2025 signals a gradual transition to a more balanced model of currency regulation, supported by the growth of foreign trade indicators and control over domestic cash flows.