The International Rating Agency upgraded Uzbekistan's long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to ' BB 'from its previous' BB -'. The rating outlook is marked as "stable". The decision is driven by accelerated institutional reforms and strong economic growth prospects.
One of the key factors that influenced the rating change was the continued low level of public debt, the presence of significant external reserves and fiscal buffers, as well as high potential dynamics of GDP growth. At the same time, the agency points to the continuing limitation in the form of a relatively low indicator of GDP per capita.
By the end of 2024, the consolidated budget deficit was 3% of GDP, which was lower than the expected 4%. According to forecasts, in 2025-2026, the indicator will remain at the level of 3%, despite large-scale investment programs and continued support for certain sectors of the economy.
Fitch notes positive developments in public sector governance. In particular, reforms aimed at restructuring and increasing the operational independence of state-owned enterprises are seen as strategically important steps to improve efficiency and reduce quasi-fiscal risks.
It is expected that in 2025 and 2026, the economy of Uzbekistan will show stable growth at the level of 6.3% annually. This pace is supported by domestic demand, strong government investment in infrastructure, export growth, and positive dynamics in key sectors such as energy, construction, and industry.
The strengthening of the credit rating signals an increase in the country's investment attractiveness against the background of consistent efforts to modernize the institutional environment and balanced macroeconomic management.
