According to the latest review Commodity Markets OutlookAccording to a report published by the World Bank, global commodity trade is expected to see a steady decline in prices during 2025-2026. The reasons for this dynamic are the weakening of global economic growth, as well as the growth of protectionist sentiment and the strengthening of trade barriers between countries.
According to experts, in 2025, the aggregate level of commodity prices will fall by 12%, and in 2026, the decline will continue at the level of another 5%. Thus, global quotes will return to the values recorded in the pre-pandemic period-from 2015 to 2019. A particularly noticeable decline is expected in the energy, metals and agricultural raw materials segments.
Analysts note that lower prices can play a positive role in curbing inflationary pressures caused earlier by rising energy costs, problems in logistics and supply constraints. This is especially true in countries with high import levels, where lower raw material costs help stabilize the domestic market and strengthen consumer activity.
However, for a number of emerging economies, where a significant part of their income is generated from the export of raw materials, such a price trend can create serious macroeconomic risks. A drop in export earnings can put pressure on foreign exchange reserves, make it difficult to meet budget obligations, and reduce the pace of domestic development.
The World Bank calls on Governments of exporting countries to prepare in advance for possible consequences and rethink their economic strategies, focusing on diversifying their sources of income, developing non-primary sectors, and integrating sustainably into international production chains.
