Uzbekistan's GDP growth is projected at 6.2%

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CEIR) has presented a forecast for the development of the Uzbek economy for the first quarter of 2025. The assessment is based on a detailed analysis of data, current economic trends and the dynamics of key industries.

Despite global challenges and macroeconomic uncertainty, the economy of Uzbekistan in 2024 showed stable growth. The main drivers were the service sector, industry, construction and high investment activity. At the beginning of 2025, economic activity continued to strengthen.

The growth is confirmed by an increase in the Business Activity Index (PMI). In January 2025, according to the CER, this indicator increased by 8.4% compared to the previous month. The IDA structure showed an increase in the volume of purchases of raw materials on the commodity exchange by 33.3%, as well as an increase in the number of business entities by 1.1%.

Key economic indicators in January showed positive dynamics. Tax revenues increased by 10.3%, customs duties - by 14.5%. The number of new business entities reached 6,126. Exports of goods increased by 8.1%.

Among the main factors of economic growth in 2025 are high investment activity, implementation of major infrastructure projects in the field of renewable energy and transport infrastructure, as well as growth in real incomes of the population. Additional support will come from strong remittance volumes that support consumer demand, and stable prices for gold and other export commodities.

At the meeting chaired by the President of Uzbekistan, dedicated to the results of the year and plans for 2025, key goals were outlined: to increase GDP to $ 120 billion, investment in the economy to $ 42 billion, and exports to $ 30 billion.

The GDP forecast is based on an analysis of about 250 weekly indicators, including Google searches in 20 major categories, price dynamics for key goods, and data on imports and inventories.

Based on the available data, GDP growth is expected to be 6.2% in the first quarter of 2025, with a projected range of 6% to 6.4%.

According to a World Bank report, Uzbekistan's economy will grow by 5.8% in 2025, while the International Monetary Fund's forecast is 5.7%. In September 2024, the Asian Development Bank raised the country's GDP growth forecast to 6.2%, noting positive dynamics in industry and construction.

Thus, the center's forecast, based on operational monitoring of economic indicators and analysis of the impact of internal and external factors, allows us to estimate the level of GDP before the publication of official data for the quarter.