Competition in the banking sector of Uzbekistan: results of IMRI analysis

Specialists of the Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies of IMRI under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan analyzed the level of competition in the country's banking system as of February 1, 2025.

Competition assessment: methodology

To assess the level of competition, the Herfindahl–Hirschmann Index (HHI) is used, which divides markets into three groups:

• Low level of competition - from 2500 to 10000 units
• Average level of competition - from 1500 to 2500 units
• High level of competition – below 1500 units

Assets

As of February 1, 2025, the HHI index for assets improved by 72 points compared to the same period last year and amounted to 800 points. The total volume of commercial banks ' assets increased by 17.7% (or 115.6 trillion soums) over the year, reaching 768 trillion soums.

The share of banks with private and foreign capital in the total assets of the banking system increased from 32,5% (as of February 1, 2024) until 34,5% (as of February 1, 2025). Significant growth was recorded in:

• Anorbank – 1.36% (+0.64 percentage points)
• TBC Bank – 1.33% (+0.60 percentage points)
• Hamkor Bank – 3.71% (+0.41 percentage points)

At the same time, the share of the largest banks with a state share has decreased:

• National Bank of Ukraine – 17.5% (-1.5 percentage points)
• Банк “Асака” – 7.4% (-1.3 percentage points)

Loans

As of February 1, 2025, the HHI loan index was 918 unitsThis is an improvement of 57 points compared to the same period in 2024 (975). The share of loans granted by banks with private and foreign capital increased from 30% before 31%.

The total volume of credit investments of commercial banks amounted to:

• 533.1 trillion soums (as of January 1, 2025), which is 36.6% of GDP
• 533.97 trillion soums (as of February 1, 2025), an increase of 866 billion soums

The annual growth in the volume of loans was 14%. At the same time:

• Loans to individuals increased by 20%
• Loans to legal entities increased by 11%
• The volume of microloans issued to individuals increased by 75%

For reference: from January 1, 2024, the maximum amount of a microloan has been increased from 50 million soums before 100 million soums.

Weighted average interest rate on bank loans in national currency:

• January 2024 – 24,1%
• December 2024 – 23,4%

Weighted average interest rates on loans to households in December 2024 reached 24,9% (in September) 23,8%The increase in interest rates is associated with high demand for loans in the national currency and inflationary expectations.

Deposits

The HHI deposit index as of February 1, 2025 was 636 unitsby improving on 32 points compared to the same period last year (668).

Total deposits increased from 242.1 trillion soums (as of February 1, 2024) until 310.2 trillion soums (as of February 1, 2025), which is an increase in 28,1%.

The share of banks with private and foreign capital in total deposits increased by 1 p. p.by reaching 50% as of January 1, 2025.

Weighted average interest rate on deposits in foreign currency:

• Beginning of 2024 – 4,7%
• End of 2024 – 5,3%

During this period, the volume of deposits:

• In the national currency increased by 36%
• In foreign currency increased by 7,4%

Results

Based on the results of the analysis, the HHI index calculated by assets, loans and deposits shows an increase in the level of competition in the banking sector of Uzbekistan. Reducing the state's share in the banking system and attracting foreign investors help strengthen the competitive environment and further develop the country's financial sector.